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I’ve said this before. The Chinese models are significantly better and will outcompete the models from the US, it was just a matter of people realizing that.
My other prediction, being that they will lobby for tariffs or banning Chinese models outright also seems to be coming true.
Build American AI, a nonprofit linked to a super PAC bankrolled by executives at OpenAI and Andreessen Horowitz, is funding a campaign to spread pro-AI messaging and stoke fears about China.
I do wonder how Europe is going to react. Will they just focus on their home grown Mistral or will they consider Chinese open weight models? I feel like the EU is quite wary of anything Chinese and that many people won’t fully comprehend the actual security risk and that they will initially dismiss are avoid them, but they can’t ignore it forever. Qwen 3.6 35B which can be ran at home is already leaving Mistral’s latest models in the dust.
Tbh most people are now way more open towards China then they are towards the US. Sure, China spy’s on you but they never made a big deal out of it. So you know what you are getting.
The US spy’s just as hard but still tries to play the good boy and in doubt I bet Europe will choose the honest partner over someone who lies.
That said we use Mistrals AI and it is more than good enough for the purpose. Anything beyond that has yet to prove its usefulness.
It’s going to be interesting to watch because the usual rationale that China is spying on you doesn’t work for open models people can run locally. And we now see that even in the US, majority of the startups are using Chinese models already. So, there 's a lot of capital invested into continuing to have access to these models. On the other hand, we have these massive AI corps in the US whose entire business model is threatened, and who will spend colossal amounts of money lobbying to ban the competition.
Indeed, that argument doesn’t really work. I suspect the argument will be that they’re untrustworthy and will give a distorted view of reality with subtle propaganda shown with a video of someone asking non open weights Chinese models about Tianamen Square or something.
Another approach is that they will form a cartel for running US inference focused datacenters and will pivot to selling services using it.
I expect the latter will be the likely long term outcome. We already saw Microsoft try to kill Linux in the early 2000s, it was a very similar scenario. MS had a software empire where they were charging absurd licenses for windows servers, and then Linux comes in and all of a sudden people start using open source. And MS literally tried to make open source illegal, eventually they lost and now nobody runs windows on servers anymore, but MS does host giant Linux server farms.
The Chinese models are significantly better and will outcompete the models from the US, it was just a matter of people realizing that.
Maybe not as good as Claude, but they are good enough, and open-source, and free. The US market is going to learn the hard way why open-source curbstomps greedy bullshit.
OpenAI will be the first to fall, and then better players like Claude will be forced to release more open-sourced models.
they will lobby for tariffs or banning Chinese models outright also seems to be coming true.
Then it’ll just come from Germany or France or elsewhere. It doesn’t take millions of dollars to train a good model, despite these US companies pretending that it does.
Maybe not as good as Claude, but they are good enough, and open-source, and free. The US market is going to learn the hard way why open-source curbstomps greedy bullshit.
Correct, the American frontier models Claude Opus, GPT 5.4, GPT 5.5, and Gemini 3 Pro still score better (while costing significantly more), but the runner ups are all Chinese models.
Then it’ll just come from Germany or France or elsewhere. It doesn’t take millions of dollars to train a good model, despite these US companies pretending that it does.
Well, it does. Deepseek-R1 cost $6 million and that was considered to be very cheap. Europe only really has Mistral’s models, Proton’s Lumo and several models that focus on transparency, ethically sourced training data, and supposedly better local language support (OpenEuroLLM, GPT-NL), but they’re by far not as good as other models and I don’t expect them to be for quite some time.
I’ve said this before. The Chinese models are significantly better and will outcompete the models from the US, it was just a matter of people realizing that.
My other prediction, being that they will lobby for tariffs or banning Chinese models outright also seems to be coming true.
A Dark-Money Campaign Is Paying Influencers to Frame Chinese AI as a Threat
I do wonder how Europe is going to react. Will they just focus on their home grown Mistral or will they consider Chinese open weight models? I feel like the EU is quite wary of anything Chinese and that many people won’t fully comprehend the actual security risk and that they will initially dismiss are avoid them, but they can’t ignore it forever. Qwen 3.6 35B which can be ran at home is already leaving Mistral’s latest models in the dust.
Tbh most people are now way more open towards China then they are towards the US. Sure, China spy’s on you but they never made a big deal out of it. So you know what you are getting. The US spy’s just as hard but still tries to play the good boy and in doubt I bet Europe will choose the honest partner over someone who lies.
That said we use Mistrals AI and it is more than good enough for the purpose. Anything beyond that has yet to prove its usefulness.
It’s going to be interesting to watch because the usual rationale that China is spying on you doesn’t work for open models people can run locally. And we now see that even in the US, majority of the startups are using Chinese models already. So, there 's a lot of capital invested into continuing to have access to these models. On the other hand, we have these massive AI corps in the US whose entire business model is threatened, and who will spend colossal amounts of money lobbying to ban the competition.
Indeed, that argument doesn’t really work. I suspect the argument will be that they’re untrustworthy and will give a distorted view of reality with subtle propaganda shown with a video of someone asking non open weights Chinese models about Tianamen Square or something.
Another approach is that they will form a cartel for running US inference focused datacenters and will pivot to selling services using it.
I expect the latter will be the likely long term outcome. We already saw Microsoft try to kill Linux in the early 2000s, it was a very similar scenario. MS had a software empire where they were charging absurd licenses for windows servers, and then Linux comes in and all of a sudden people start using open source. And MS literally tried to make open source illegal, eventually they lost and now nobody runs windows on servers anymore, but MS does host giant Linux server farms.
Maybe not as good as Claude, but they are good enough, and open-source, and free. The US market is going to learn the hard way why open-source curbstomps greedy bullshit.
OpenAI will be the first to fall, and then better players like Claude will be forced to release more open-sourced models.
Then it’ll just come from Germany or France or elsewhere. It doesn’t take millions of dollars to train a good model, despite these US companies pretending that it does.
Correct, the American frontier models Claude Opus, GPT 5.4, GPT 5.5, and Gemini 3 Pro still score better (while costing significantly more), but the runner ups are all Chinese models.
Well, it does. Deepseek-R1 cost $6 million and that was considered to be very cheap. Europe only really has Mistral’s models, Proton’s Lumo and several models that focus on transparency, ethically sourced training data, and supposedly better local language support (OpenEuroLLM, GPT-NL), but they’re by far not as good as other models and I don’t expect them to be for quite some time.
Okay, apparently, the hundreds of thousands of dollars figure was BS.